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Market Watch

The Marketplace - 9th Decemember 2016
09/12/2016
Good Morning, After yesterday’s focus on the euro area, attention will turn back to the UK and whether economic growth is continuing to hold up in Q4. Data earlier this week, which showed much weaker than expected October industrial production, pointed to a downside risk for Q4 GDP growth. Today’s October construction output release may provide at least a partial offset, as sector sentiment surveys such as the PMI indicate at least a small rise in output. However, it should be noted that the monthly construction data are both very volatile and prone to large revisions. Moreover, the main determinant of Q4 growth will be the strength of service sector output, which accounts for about 75% of GDP. Also of interest in the UK will be October trade data, which will be watched for signs of an impact from Sterling’s slide. Expect a reduction in the trade deficit compared to September. Meanwhile, ahead of the MPC meeting, Bank of England policy makers will be interested to see whether inflation expectations are rising as a result of the Pound’s fall. As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com Have a great weekend!

The Marketplace - 8th December 2016
08/12/2016
Good Morning, Attention today will be squarely on the eagerly awaited ECB policy decision. The interest rate announcement will be made at 12:45GMT, with further measures and new economic forecasts expected at the press conference starting at 13:30GMT. The ECB is widely expected to ease policy further, by announcing an extension of its asset purchase programme beyond the current March 2017 end date. Our baseline expectation is for a six-month extension at the current monthly €80bn rate of purchases. To facilitate this and address the potential scarcity of assets to purchase, policy parameters are likely to be tweaked. In our view, raising the issue limits and removing the deposit rate floor are the more likely changes. Of more interest will be whether ECB President Draghi makes any signal that policymakers are now starting to think about the eventual end of the asset purchase programme. This would be more conditional on inflation remaining on course to return to target in projections extending out to 2019 As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com

The Marketplace - 07th December 2016
07/12/2016
UK November Halifax house prices and October industrial production are the domestic releases today. Survey data have generally been supportive of another quarter of decent overall growth GDP in Q4, but the ‘hard’ official data will be key. After September’s outsized rise, we think it is probable that manufacturing activity paused in October. For broader industrial output, a small increase of around 0.2%m/m is expected, reflecting a rebound in oil and utility output. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. The recovery in oil prices has lessened the need for immediate policy stimulus, but the ramifications of a Donald Trump administration remain unclear