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Market Watch

The Marketplace - 27th March 2017
27/03/2017
Good Morning Markets will continue to assess the fallout from last week’s failure by the US administration to pass the healthcare bill. As such, the US Dollar and Treasury yields remain under pressure. The Euro was supported by the German regional election results in Saarland, with the IFO survey the main European focus today. Central bank speakers today include ECB Chief Economist Praet. He said recently that the economic situation is improving, but the normalisation of inflation is still dependent on monetary stimulus and underlying inflation remains weak. Other speakers include the US Fed’s Evans and Kaplan, both of whom are voters this year. Evans is one of the more dovish members, while Kaplan has already indicated he favour three hikes this year. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey today may show a slight fall, but it is not one of the more closely watched reports. Domestically, the triggering of Article 50 on Wednesday is widely expected, firing the starting gun on two-year negotiations to exit the EU. PM May will travel to Scotland to meet First Minister Sturgeon today, although the Scottish Parliament is still expected to pass a vote tomorrow seeking a new independence referendum. Direct rule is set to return in Northern Ireland if parties fail to form a power-sharing government today. As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com

The Marketplace - 24th March 2017
24/03/2017
Good Morning, The European focus will be on the UK mortgage approvals figures for February from the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) and the euro area ‘flash’ PMI survey for March. Markets are looking a slight increase in mortgage approvals to 44.9k from 44.7k. The trajectory has been upward since August, suggesting resilient housing activity. The more comprehensive Bank of England figures will be released next week. For the euro area PMI, analysts are forecasting no change for both the manufacturing and services headline indices at 55.4 and 55.5, respectively. The overall composite PMI a weighted average of the manufacturing output index and the services PMI is expected to average around 55.4 in Q1, consistent with quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.6%, which would be stronger than 0.4% in Q4. The afternoon session sees the release of US durable goods orders and the Markit manufacturing and services PMI surveys. Look for a rise of about 0.5% in durable goods orders (excluding transport) and small improvements in both the Markit surveys. Given the volatility of economic data, more interest may be on Fed officials’ interpretation of underlying economic trends. Speakers today include Evans, Bullard, Dudley and Williams. As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com

The Marketplace - 23rd March 2017
23/03/2017
Good Morning, Today’s February retail sales data will be watched closely for an updated view on the health of the UK consumer. January’s retail sales data reinforced an impression of softening trends in consumer activity, with volumes falling by 0.3% m/m, a third successive drop. That decline saw the rolling quarterly growth rate turn negative. Data from the CBI, BRC and weekly John Lewis sales returns for February do not suggest a vigorous rebound. Furthermore, rising prices would over time imply slower growth in volumes. Still, some mechanical rebound is plausible in February. Even with a 0.8% m/m recovery, as analysts expect, the quarterly growth rate would decline further, setting up a drop for Q1 overall. Elsewhere, it is a very light economic calendar with no data releases that are likely to significantly move markets. In Europe, the ECB is scheduled to announce the results of the final tranche of its Targeted LTRO programme this morning. Through the operation the ECB offers 4yr funding at a cost of -40bps. A strong outturn is likely with expectations pointing to a greater take-up (€110bn) relative to the previous auction in December (€62.2bn). Meanwhile in the US, a limited data slate places the focus on speeches from Fed members Kaplan, Chair Yellen and Kashkari. Any views on monetary policy are likely to be polarised, given Kashkari's limited desire to raise interest rates, relative to Chair Yellen and Kaplan, who have previously expressed their desire to tighten monetary policy further this year. Domestically, BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent is scheduled to speak at an event this morning where he may offer some views on how much appetite he has for an overshoot of inflation relative to the 2% target As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com