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Market Watch

The Marketplace - 26th September 2016
26/09/2016
Good Morning, Friday’s release of the September PMIs painted a mixed picture of health for the German economy. While the manufacturing reading rose to 54.3 from 53.6, the services PMI dropped to 50.6 from 51.7 to leave the overall composite measure down on the month, consistent with some easing in the growth momentum in Q3. Further information on the German economic outlook will come from the IFO survey today. While the IFO and the PMIs tend to broadly move in the same direction, the sharp fall in the business climate component in August, to us, looks overdone. As a result, look for an uptick in the IFO business climate to 106.8 from 106.2 and a modest rise in the expectations measure to 100.5 from 100.1. Ahead of a plethora of US Fed speakers this week (mostly on Wednesday and Thursday), Fed member’s Tarullo and Kaplan are scheduled to speak at separate events today. The latter is likely to attract more interest, given that he will be a voter on the FOMC next year. In Europe, ECB President Draghi is due to appear before the European Parliament and Swiss National Bank President Jordan speaks in Geneva. Meanwhile, amid a recent tightening in the polls, the first US Presidential election debate takes place this evening in the US (UK - early Tuesday am). For further information please stay in touch with the desk via email at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com or via phone at 0844 815 3240.

The Marketplace - 23rd September 2016
23/09/2016
Good Morning, Markets have been calmer following the raft of central bank policy announcements earlier this week, with the focus returning more to economic data. The 13-14 December FOMC meeting remains the more likely date for another US rate rise this year, given that the next meeting will be held only days before the Presidential Election on 8 November. There are no UK data releases today. The BoE’s Kristin Forbes, a hawkish MPC member, yesterday indicated that she does not currently see the case for additional stimulus, though her views are not necessarily shared by her colleagues on the Committee. The euro area PMI surveys today are not likely to shift the ECB’s wait-and-see stance, as internal committees study additional stimulus options. For further information please stay in touch with the desk via email at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com or via phone at 0844 815 3240. Have a great weekend!

The Marketplace - 22nd September 2016
22/09/2016
Good Morning, Central banks remain in the spotlight, with Norway’s central bank announcing its policy decision. Analysts believe the policy rate could be reduced by 25bps to 0.25% on the back of a weak economic outlook. Still, recent upside surprises to the data means that it could be a close call. BoE MPC’s Kristin Forbes is scheduled to give a speech on global economic shocks this evening, with the text released at 13:00BST. Governor Carney also speaks in Berlin, but the topic is not expected to be on monetary policy. In the US, the Fed’s Dennis Lockhart will speak on the labour market. Finally, a number of central bankers will be present at the ESRB annual conference, including ECB President Mario Draghi who is scheduled to speak at 14:00BST. BoE MPC member Jon Cunliffe will also chair a panel discussion at the conference. For further information please stay in touch with the desk via email at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com or via phone at 0844 815 3240.