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Market Watch

The Marketplace - 22nd February 2017
22/02/2017
Good Morning, There is a chance the second estimate of UK Q4 GDP could be revised up a notch to 0.7%q/q from 0.6%q/q on the back of outturns for industrial and construction output for the quarter which exceeded ONS assumptions in the preliminary release. This second release will also contain the first expenditure breakdown for Q4. Residual strength of retail sales in late 2016 suggests that consumer spending will continue to have been the main driver of economic growth in Q4. Whether this will continue in 2017, especially with inflation accelerating and wage growth remaining subdued, will be increasingly under the microscope. Bank of England Deputy Governors Cunliffe and Shafik speak later today. In the US, recent relatively hawkish comments from Fed officials will provide the context for the FOMC minutes release this evening. Fed Governor Powell will also be speaking. In the euro area, expect further improvements in the closely watched German IFO survey, especially after yesterday’s resilient flash PMI results, while the final reading of January CPI inflation is expected to confirm the jump to 1.8%y/y. This morning, markets will be watching to see if Sterling is able to hold onto gains made in trading yesterday following Euro weakness. This was a result of another opinion poll showing that in France, far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen has gained further ground on her competitors. As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com

The Marketplace - 21st February 2017
21/02/2017
Good Morning, The January Euro Area PMIs showed overall activity remaining resilient. The headline services index was unchanged from December, while manufacturing rose to 55.2 from 54.9, its highest level since April 2011. For February expect both services and manufacturing to be unchanged from their January levels. If realised this would be consistent with Q1 GDP growth being close to Q4’s growth rate of 0.4%. Today’s January public finances data will be the last monthly update on the UK’s fiscal position prior to the Spring Budget on 8th March. January typically sees bumper receipts from self-assessment tax returns. A better-than-expected fiscal picture since last year’s Autumn Statement may give the Chancellor wriggle room for some fiscal giveaways for select cash-strapped causes. BoE Governor Carney and MPC members Haldane, Vlieghe and McCafferty testify to the Treasury Select Committee today. As Haldane is considered one of the most ’dovish’ members and McCafferty one of the most ‘hawkish’, the four are probably a good representation of the range of views on the MPC. As things stand, no policy change seems likely in the near term, but their testimony may give some indication of how they weigh up the respective risks. As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com

The Marketplace - 20th February 2017
20/02/2017
Good Morning, A bank holiday in the US today means focus will be primarily on European markets towards the start of the week, with data releases including Eurozone PMI readings due Tuesday at 0900. At the start of trading on today, Sterling will be looking to recover ground lost on Friday after poor retail sales data caused the currency to fall by as much as 0.5% against the Dollar and 0.3% against the Euro. Signals are starting to show that consumers are beginning to suffer from a rise in inflation and worries over the outlook for the economy as Britain prepares to leave the European Union. This will give added focus to BoE Governor Carney’s testimony to the Treasury Select Committee tomorrow, here reflection will be made on the February Inflation Report, and we may be provided with some indication of how the bank weigh up the respective risks. In a week with limited data releases attention is likely to shift back towards politics, with U.S. President Trump expected to issue an overhauled executive order on immigration and in Europe attention remains on upcoming elections, the Greek bailout and Brexit. As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com