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Market Watch

The Marketplace - 20th January 2017
20/01/2017
Good Morning Mr Donald Trump will today officially become the President of the United States of America. This will grab the main headlines although the financial markets doubt President Trump will use this occasion to spring any major surprises, but some key policy changes are likely to follow swiftly. If he delivers on promises to limit trade and immigration, and puts some numbers around his planned fiscal stimulus, it could prompt a big reaction in the financial markets. His inauguration fires the starting gun on what is likely to be a highly eventful first 100 days in office. Proceedings are expected to commence just before 17:00 GMT before Donald Trump takes the Oath of Office to be sworn in as America’s 45th president. Keep an eye out for UK Retail Sales data being released this morning at 09:30am. Expect data to show that Christmas sales started on a weak note in December but then picked up strongly in the week leading up to Christmas Eve. Following on from the biggest 5 month series of sales increases since 2002, analysts expect a correction, however it may not be as large as feared a few weeks ago. It is expected to get tougher for UK households in the future though as CPI inflation starts climbing above wage growth. As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com

The Marketplace - 19th January 2017
19/01/2017
Good Morning, No ECB policy change is expected to be announced today. The asset purchase programme is seemingly on a pre-set course this year, as the ECB decided in December to extend its duration to end-2017, albeit to a scaled-down monthly rate of €60bn from April. More attention will be on the press conference at 13:30GMT, expect President Draghi to reiterate that the current policy stance is appropriate. He may emphasise again that asset purchases could be ramped up if necessary to address any shortfalls in growth and inflation. Overall, a dovish tone is expected, despite the pickup in inflation, resilient economic growth and ‘a few’ members voting against the extension of QE last month. US data include housing starts, weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. Following comments yesterday evening, Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak again in the early hours of Friday (UK time). China’s Q4 GDP tomorrow morning is expected to come in steady at 6.7%y/y. It would mean the government’s growth target for 2016 has been met. China’s December industrial production and retail sales, released at the same time, should confirm robust activity at the end of the year. As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com

The Marketplace - 18th January 2017
18/01/2017
Good Morning, The Pound rebounded strongly, following PM May’s speech yesterday on the government’s approach to ‘Brexit’ negotiations. It was also supported by stronger-than-expected UK inflation data (see attached Marketplace). Market attention today will turn to economic data and central bank speakers. The main releases are UK labour market statistics and US CPI inflation. Analysts are forecasting a small rise in the UK ILO unemployment rate to 4.9% from 4.8%, while overall wage growth is forecast to tick up to 2.6% from 2.5%, a rate likely to fall short of the marked upsurge in inflation anticipated over the course of 2017. In the US, look for a further acceleration in annual headline CPI inflation to 2.1% for December and for it to remain above 2% during 2017. In contrast, ‘core’ inflation has been more stable in recent months, hovering slightly above 2% through all of last year. Core inflation is expected to be unchanged at 2.1% in December, but a further pickup seems likely in 2017. In the first of two appearances this week, US Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak at 20:00GMT. The Fed’s Kashkari and Kaplan (both voters) also speak today. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada is expected to leave policy rates unchanged at 0.5%. Euro area annual CPI inflation is expected to confirm a 3-year high of 1.1% in December, but ‘core’ inflation remains subdued. As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com